Texas St.

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	243.0
Current RPI:	243
Expected SOS:	254
Current SOS:	254
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-8
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	281
Expected OOC SOS:	347

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	243.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	65-57	L	0%
11-15	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	78-79	L	0%
11-18	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	75-58	W	100%
11-22	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	N	71-54	W	100%
11-24	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	N	68-62	L	0%
11-25	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	78-85	W	100%
11-29	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	66-53	W	100%
12-2	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	71-52	L	0%
12-9	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	72-68	L	0%
12-17	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	66-58	L	0%
12-22	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	66-74	W	100%
12-29	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	66-62	L	0%
12-31	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	48-53	W	100%
1-4	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	72-69	W	100%
1-6	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	57-56	W	100%
1-11	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	67-73	W	100%
1-13	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	70-72	W	100%
1-18	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	55-52	W	100%
1-20	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	55-80	L	0%
1-25	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	61-62	W	100%
1-27	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	54-50	L	0%
2-1	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	54-56	L	0%
2-3	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	56-59	L	0%
2-10	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	70-68	L	0%
2-15	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	73-63	L	0%
2-17	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	79-71	L	0%
2-22	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	50-77	L	0%
2-24	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	77-81	L	0%
3-2	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	82-85	L	0%
3-7	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	N	66-73	W	100%
3-9	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	N	80-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas St.	SB	26.41	26.41	43.79	43.79	-3.28	-3.28
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	5.55	5.55	78.57	78.57	3.17	3.17
Coastal Carolina	SB	5.52	5.52	38.46	38.46	-1.27	-1.27
UT Arlington	SB	4.31	4.31	58.06	58.06	0.70	0.70
Georgia St.	SB	4.07	4.07	66.67	66.67	1.36	1.36
Appalachian St.	SB	4.02	4.02	37.93	37.93	-0.97	-0.97
Georgia Southern	SB	4.02	4.02	62.07	62.07	0.97	0.97
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.01	4.01	46.15	46.15	-0.31	-0.31
Troy	SB	2.62	2.62	46.67	46.67	-0.17	-0.17
Arkansas St.	SB	2.60	2.60	31.03	31.03	-0.99	-0.99
Little Rock	SB	2.57	2.57	20.69	20.69	-1.51	-1.51
South Alabama	SB	2.54	2.54	41.38	41.38	-0.44	-0.44
UTSA	CUSA	1.81	1.81	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.81	1.81	32.00	32.00	-0.65	-0.65
Rice	CUSA	1.79	1.79	17.86	17.86	-1.15	-1.15
Air Force	MWC	1.77	1.77	32.14	32.14	-0.63	-0.63
Abilene Christian	Slnd	1.76	1.76	42.31	42.31	-0.27	-0.27
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	1.75	1.75	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Houston Baptist	Slnd	1.73	1.73	7.41	7.41	-1.48	-1.48
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.72	1.72	41.18	41.18	-0.30	-0.30
Canisius	MAAC	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Pacific	WCC	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Colorado St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	30.00	30.00	-0.67	-0.67
Lamar	Slnd	0.32	0.32	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.26	0.26	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.26	0.26	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.21	0.21	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.20	0.20	80.00	80.00	0.12	0.12
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.20	0.20	8.00	8.00	-0.17	-0.17
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.20	0.20	32.00	32.00	-0.07	-0.07
UTEP	CUSA	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
North Texas	CUSA	0.19	0.19	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.18	0.18	12.50	12.50	-0.13	-0.13
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Utah St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.00	0.00